15 Months and Counting: What's Changed?

Once again, the 17th has come and gone, and it's now less than 15 months until the current "hard" date (2/17/09) on which analog broadcasting is supposed to cease. This is the 20th of 35 planned monthly recaps of developments affecting the various players (laid out in my first few posts) in this story, meaning that we have gone more than half the distance that remained when we started this blog in March of 2006. Despite the name of this blog I do cover some stories (like the growth of HD) that are not directly transition-related (but strike me as being of interest to transition-watchers). That said, here's some of what happened (or was commented on) between 10/18 and 11/17. As is usual, major news sources for this update include Multichannel News, Engadget HD, TV Week, TWICE and TVPredictions.com.

THE PUBLIC - Consider your daily activities for a moment (not counting whatever you have to do to get the bills paid). Are there any that are done primarily out of habit, that you might drop if they became more costly or difficult? According to a recent survey by the Consumer Electronics Association, a lot of analog TV owners might be feeling that way about their TV viewing. The survey asked analog owners (those who only watch over-the-air broadcasts) what they would do to prepare for the transition, and 22% said "nothing". Now it's possible that a portion of that 22% simply don't believe that the nation will really go through with this, but that still leaves a lot of people who are currently planning to become ex-TV-watchers in the near future. Good news for the movie and publishing industries?

Since I began this blog, I have noted many public-education campaigns announced by a variety of organizations. Finally, we're seeing some of the results. I started to notice spots affiliated with the National Association of Broadcasters' DTV Answers campaign around the time of the World Series. It'll be interesting to see if this affects the next round of public-awareness survey numbers. More recently, all the broadcasters in the Washington D.C. area launched a co-ordinated campaign featuring locally-produced spots and simultaneous airing across stations.

Hopefully they'll produce better results than we're seeing in the related area of HD awareness, where a recent Leichtman Research Group survey reveals continuing confusion on the subject. Especially noteworthy is the finding that 20% of HDTV owners still think they are watching HD, but aren't. Still, there's been movement since this blog began. Back in June 2006, I noted the results of a previous Leichtman survey. Back then, 43% of HD owners were watching HD programming, compared to 53% now. And it's important to note that these percentages are part of a growing pool of HDTV owners, with the overall result (according to Neilsen) that 11.3% of US homes now receive HD programming. Of course, some areas have taken to it more quickly than others - the same survey puts NYC on top with 17.5%, while Boston ranks fourth at 16.2%.

One aspect of the message that hasn't been getting out well at all (in fact, it's news to me) is that there are actually exceptions to the transition rules - thousands of low-power, Class A and "translator" (meaning they rebroadcast signals from full-power stations) stations, which largely serve rural areas and specific urban communities, and which aren't required to abandon analog on The Day. That's not to say they don't have problems of their own, such as the fact that much of their audience will soon be getting its programming from converter boxes that won't be able to see their analog signal.

GOVERNMENT - In last month's "Public" section, I made note of the NAB's plans to run their PSAs during prime time. However, formalizing this through proposed FCC mandates doesn't seem to be going down too well, with both the NAB and Fox Television Stations complaining. Also not happy is the CEO of Insight Communications, who argues for a small operator exemption from the new FCC must-carry rules (if a provider doesn't go all-digital by 2/17/09, they have to continue to offer analog versions of their local must-carry stations for at least three years). The cable companies have issues with FCC Chairman Kevin Martin that go beyond the transition itself, as he seems determined to use provisions of a 1984 law as a pretext to dramatically expand the FCC's ability to regulate cable's overall operations, even though he may be using bad data in the process.

Another FCC mandate still facing resistance is the one requiring cable companies make their equipment CableCARD friendly (thus enabling consumer-electronics companies to market devices using provider-supplied CableCARDs) - Comcast is suing for a waiver. But adoption is now widespread enough to focus on which technology will set the standard for interactive access in the future - the CEA's favored "digital cable ready plus" solution, or OpenCable, which providers are advocating.

Meanwhile, John Knauer, the governments main transition point-man, is leaving.

Finally, on the state government front, an Ohio bill that would have compelled arbitration in carriage disputes between cable companies and networks is dead for this year - this is seen as a setback for the NFL Network and Big Ten Network.

BROADCASTING - The lead item this time reads like a repeat of last month - a few more new local HD newscast launches, with one big national news story- an HD launch of The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer is not far off, although perhaps not the Jan 1st date that has been reported elsewhere. Antiques Roadshow is slated for later in January.

One area of broadcasting that has been slow to accept HD is syndication - for quite awhile now, Wheel Of Fortune and Jeopardy have been pretty much it. Now, however, another of the big names in syndication is about to fall in line, as Entertainment Tonight will be going HD sometime "next season".

OK, I know this next one isn't actually "broadcasting" at it's usually defined in this section, but HD transmissions from the moon are just too cool to ignore, even if they don't fit into the framework here.

PROGRAM PROVIDERS - After the floodtide of DirecTV channel additions last time, things were fairly quiet (other than the addition of NHL Network HD and NBA TV HD, two moves that were quickly matched by Dish) until Nov 15th, when they added 23 more channels. However, when you deduct PPV channels and RSNs (Regional Sports Networks), you come up with all of five new national HD networks (Nickelodeon, Spike, CMT, MTV and VH1). The latter three of those have been supplying their meager HD libraries to MHD, so don't expect to see too much great new stuff right away. But with the way that DirecTV counts channels, they can now say that they have fulfilled their "100 channels" promise.

As before, this left cable companies (and FiOS) scrambling to fit a few of the newbies into their stretched lineups, and here's a few examples of what I'm talking about. Here in Boston, Comcast recently added USA, CNN, History and Discovery, with NHL Network HD only featured in Boston proper and Brookline (good thing I'm not very interested in hockey). And yet, Comcast still proclaims itself to be the HD leader (based on such factors as subscriber count and VOD lineup).

You might have noticed I'm including FiOS among the bandwidth-challenged, judging from the glacial pace of their adoptions. That's nothing I would have expected, given all the hype we've seen about the advantages of fiber optics. So what is the situation, anyway? Ben Drawbaugh from Engadget HD did some digging and analysis, and has some interesting speculations about the possible causes of this situation. But whatever the cause is or isn't, it seems to be fixable, since Verizon is promising 150 HD channels by the end of 2008.

As stressful as this struggle to expand capacity is for program providers, it is most definitely good news for program producers, as noted by Josh Sapan of Rainbow Media Holdings.

There was some action on the legal front this time around, with yet another suit over the accuracy of HD ad claims (this time DirecTV is suing Cox), plus a suit by HDNet designed to keep DirecTV from bumping the channel to a new $5 "HD Extra Pack" tier.

In other provider-related news, Comcast now has a TiVo service webpage where you can get info and check availability (I'll let you know when they get around to offering it in my town) The AT&T franchising setback I mentioned last time was replaced by victories in Connecticut and Ohio. AT&T was also the subject of increased Dish merger rumors, as well as suffering a nationwide outage that might be related to infrastructure strains related to recent subscriber growth. Projected spending on that infrastucture has recently increased by $500 million even as the estimate of potential subscribers (people to whom the service would be available) fell by a million. Two providers announced HD subscriber milestones - Verizon has more than 700,000 and Cablevision is up to 900,000. Finally, a less-traditional provider (the VUDU service) just became more relevant to many of us by signing HD content agreements.

HD NETWORKS - As mentioned above, many providers have been adding a few channels out of the recent explosion. So far, USA, CNN and History seem to be doing especially well, with Discovery just starting to make real inroads. There are some other items concerning recently launched channels - Broadcast Engineering has an interview with Greg Ahlquist of Fox Business Channel, HDTV Magazine has a column from Ed Milburn on CNBC's unique way of presenting HD, and Comcast had some comments for the FCC regarding the NFL Network's attempts to force arbitration regarding which tier it should go on (it's currently on the Sports & Entertainment tier).

Of HD networks that have been around for awhile, all the items I have this time out are for MOJO, which has been pretty busy lately - getting off-network rights to Heroes, creating a new block of finance shows on Thursday night, and getting its programming into new distribution channels via Internet TV provider Joost and the Amazon Unbox digital-video-download service.

So now it's time to look ahead at channels of the future. Actually, by the time post gets up, Biography HD's launch (on DirecTV) will be in the present (it's scheduled to debut on Nov 28th). Very soon after (Dec 1st)will see the debut of RFD-HD, a network focused on rural concerns which is trying to expand its reach by carrying a video version of Don Imus' new show.Two more are coming in the first quarter of 2008 - QVC and Ion TV - carriers yet to be announced.

MANUFACTURERS - In the NextGen DVD format war, it was a pretty decent month for HD-DVD, which should come as a relief, since it could have been disastrous. As big a step up as the Paramount HD DVD-exclusive deal was, Warner's format neutrality is a bigger asset, so when Dan Silverberg (VP of high-definition media for Warner Home Video) recently mentioned that Warner was "re-evaluating" whether they would continue to support both formats (in the same speech in which he proclaimed Warner's commitment to Blu-ray), it caused quite a bit of nervousness among HD DVD fans, at least until Warner denied that any changes were on the horizon. Still, you have to wonder whether this was simply a matter of the company trying to cover for a lapse in discretion. One possibly relevant data point - Total HD, their planned format-neutral disc for those wishing to future-proof their disc purchases, has been dropped before it ever had a chance to get off the ground.

But Mr. Silverman's comments were soon overshadowed by those of Sony CEO Howard Stringer, who referred to the format war as a "stalemate" (due to the Paramount switch). Sony is the leading backer of the format, so this kind of comment carries enormous weight - even after it was "clarified" in the last few days (it was, after all, left out there unmodified for a couple of weeks). It certainly makes the comments of Bob Chapek, president of Disney Studios Home Entertainment (where he in essence tells HD DVD supporters to just give up and accept the inevitable) seem not only premature but a bit petulant as well.

But the most noticeable event (from the point of view of the public, in any case) was the price collapse (at least temporarily)of HD DVD players, to the degree where they now threaten to become mass market items (compared to Blu-ray players, which have only in the last few days gone below $399). As recently as Oct 26, it was news when the Toshiba HD-A2 dipped below $200. By Nov 1st, they were being blown out at $99. Then the newer HD-A3 hit $199, and on Black Friday was selling for a low as $169 at Sears. As a result, sales went through the roof (and have been on a tear ever since). (Full disclosure - when the A3 went to $199 at Circuit City before Black Friday, I could resist no longer.)

But let's not forget that Blu-ray still has some powerful competitive advantages going for it. They are still well ahead in disc sales (except for the recent week when HD-DVD exclusive Transformers set sales records), and it's a good idea to remember that recent price cuts have multiplied PS3 sales as well (and that even a modest estimate of the percentage of these that are used as Blu-ray players continues to give Blu-ray a solid lead in installed player base). They've also just updated their hardware spec with new features. So it's doubtful that Blu-ray is in any kind of trouble, but with business looking up for HD DVD, there's no reason for its supporters not to keep the game going. We are still in the very early chapters of this story. While in the long run the recent Jupiter Research study (which suggests that the final winner may be the standard DVD) may be proven wrong, for now the "good enough" old favorite is still the real leader - even in most high-def homes.

So this is the part where I remind myself that NextGen DVD players aren't the only hardware we look at here, though it certainly seems that way sometime (what can I say - conflict makes for a compelling story). New things arriving and old things passing from the scene also make good stories, so you might be interested to know that the OLED display technology that has been talked about here may actually get here this year - if only it was bigger than 11 inches (can't have everything). Heading in the other direction is the old stalwart RPTV (currently taking up a lot of space in the living room where I live) -despite it's superior "bang for buck", nobody wants a big box in their house anymore, so Hitachi has stopped production.

And that's all I have for now!

17 Months and Counting: What's Changed?

Once again, the 17th has come and gone, and it's now less than 17 months until the current "hard" date (2/17/09) on which analog broadcasting is supposed to cease. This is the 18th of 35 planned monthly recaps of developments affecting the various players (laid out in my first few posts) in this story, meaning that we have gone more than half the distance that remained when we started this blog in March of 2006. Despite the name of this blog I do cover some stories (like the growth of HD) that are not directly transition-related (but strike me as being of interest to transition-watchers). Due to my recent trip to Japan, this will be a bit more compact and focused (and late) than usual. That said, here's some of what happened (or was commented on) between 8/18 and 9/17 (with one obvious exception). As usual, major news sources for this update include Multichannel News, Engadget HD, TV Week, TWICE and TVPredictions.com.

THE PUBLIC - We focus this time on two efforts to educate the public, one from broadcasters (the National Association of Broadcasters, or NAB) and the other from the cable industry (the National Cable & Telecommunication Association, or NCTA) . The NAB has announced their plans to send local stations four to six 30-second PSAs by the end of the year, but the plans are light on details (such as whether they'll air in prime time or will mention cable as option for keeping existing sets useful) so far. For now, they'd like to keep it vague, rejecting suggestions that the FCC impose specific time or message requirements. The NCTA already has its PSAs online, although at the time they were made their promises to "take care of all that transition stuff for us" was only true for digital-cable customers, as pointed out by the NAB (this has now changed; see GOVERNMENT below).

Do people pay more attention to high-def advertisements? I certainly do (although the novelty is certain to wear out eventually), and I'm not alone, as this survey shows.

GOVERNMENT - A major concern for transition-watchers has been the fate of analog-cable customers after 2/17/09, when analog broadcast signals (the heart of any analog cable package) are scheduled to go away. The FCC has now acted, but not without having to make some compromises. FCC Chairman Kevin Martin's original plan was to require cable companies to convert digital broadcast transmissions to analog for analog customers (thus "dual carry") once analog transmissions were shut off, unless the company has converted (like Comcast in Chicago) to all-digital transmission. This plan simultaneously protected those customers from a rude awakening on The Day, while giving cable companies a powerful incentive to force the smaller inconvenience of a digital STB on those very same customers. However, threats of court action from the NCTA have resulted in a compromise whereby these provisions are effective for three years only (starting on 2/18/09), although the FCC does reserve the right to extend that. The FCC also backed off on measures designed to preserve picture quality by eliminating bandwidth-saving techniques such as compression and statistical multiplexing. Also, systems with less than 552 MHz may apply for waivers. I'm not sure how much this weakens the incentive to go all-digital; hopefully, the evolution of the marketplace will provide incentives of its own.

Another problem regarding the overall transition has surfaced; both DirecTV and Echostar (Dish Network) now say they may not have time to make the equipment changes necessary to capture all the local broadcast digital stations (unlike cable, they have to do this for the whole country, not just one area) by the transition date. A bit late in the day to be bringing this up, no? They seem to be asking for a delay in the transition date. I doubt they'll get it, but what else can be worked out? We'll be watching this one!

Cable, satellite, what have we forgotten? Oh yeah, over-the-air analog watchers, the group most likely to be negatively impacted by the transition. Anybody doing anything for them lately? One group that would like to try is the Save Our Sets Transition Coalition, which proposes a social compact whereby participating service providers offer to provide holders of converter-box coupons free analog broadcast TV service for seven years, in return for retransmission-fee concessions from broadcasters. Something of a long shot here, but who knows - something could come of it.

In news regarding other mandates, Comcast seems set to appeal the FCC's denial of their waiver request (exempting three of their STBs from the CableCARD mandate), and the FCC set a date (January 16, 2008) for the beginning of the auction for the spectrum reclaimed in the transition.

BROADCASTING - While there are still only few local newsrooms broadcasting HD news (a bit more than 50 at last count), they tend to clump together - that is to say, a prime incentive to convert your newsroom appears to be the fact that your local competition has already done so. That's why Cleveland had three as far back as January, and why Tampa now has two. While we're on the subject, you might be interested in Ben Drawbaugh's behind-the-scenes look at a local HD newscast.

Also making ground on the broadcast HD front is football, with CBS going all-HD with their coverage of SEC college games.

PROGRAM PROVIDERS - The biggest story this month continued to be the struggle by program providers to add capacity, but most of that story was about waiting. Everyone knew the game was about to change with the launch of the first wave of new DirecTV HD channels, but no one knew exactly when. In early September, it was learned that a separate HD-only tier (consisting of HDNet, HDNet Movies, Universal HD, MHD, MGM HD and Smithsonian HD) would be created, with a separate $4.99 charge for the six non-simulcast channels. As the 17th drew near, word got around that the 19th would be Launch Day, but no dice. It finally happened on the 26th. I'll have more to say about that next time, but for now you can see what viewers are saying over at AVS Forum.

Moves in response were surprisingly modest during this period. Dish Network added some HD PPV channels, while Cox in Virgina prepared for future moves by deploying switched video.

No further updates regarding legal issues between providers, but we do have one franchising story. A vote intended to fulfill an earlier promise to cable companies to extend them some of the fast-track treatment now given to telcos (such as the requirement that local government act on applications within 90 days) was cancelled without explanation by FCC Chairman Martin. Whether this is simply a timing issue or something more significant remains to be seen.

In other provider news, Comcast will be eventually using other platforms besides Motorola for its TiVo service (still to show up here in New England, which is supposed to get it first), Verizon is shooting a series of infomercials for its FiOS service and AT&T's U-Verse service has passed the 100K mark in subscribers.
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HD NETWORKS - As you might expect, things have picked up on this front since last time. Two new channels couldn't wait for DirecTV, and launched without them, although in CNN HD's case, it was a question of "if a channel launches and no one is carrying it, does it actually exist?" (They have been making up for lost time lately, having just been added by Comcast.) Meanwhile, History Channel HD launched, but with an actual provider (Dish). Big Ten Network also launched, but without the Comcast deal they've been craving, though they've been made welcome on DirecTV, AT&T's U-Verse, and Dish. Of course, there was plenty of launch activity after the 17th, which we'll get into next time.

There were also a number of announcements of yet-to-debut channels. One of the main frustrations for HD enthusiasts is the paucity of real HD content on simulcast channels (i.e. channels that have the same programming as their SD counterpart). Well,you won't have to look for the HD content on CNBC HD+, since there won't be any HD, just additional graphics filling up the 16:9 frame, with the SD feed in a 4:3 window, and no current plans to move towards real HD. Oh well, at least it's not stretched. In contrast Fox Business Net will be in HD from its October 15 launch.

Also putting more HD into their simulcasts will be Travel Channel HD, whose schedule will be 95% high-def when it launches in the first quarter of next year, and Weather Channel HD, which will kick things off October 1 with two long form series in HD, followed by the debut of its HD studio sometime in June (in the long run, the goal is 90% HD).

In existing-channels news, things may be looking up in terms of real HD content at A&E, which is taking another run at original series drama, and Starz is doing likewise. Another problem being addressed is the extreme rerun-heaviness of MHD's schedule, which should get a bit of relief from this new concert series. And five HD networks are back on the air after a fire at their uplinker.

MANUFACTURERS - We start this time with the previously-reported Paramount/Dreamworks announcement that they would join the HD-DVD exclusives club, which already seems to turned back the tide of momentum stirred up by the Blockbuster Blu-ray-exclusive announcement two months ago. Regardless of the possible financial incentives connected to the deal, you can't deny the cost (in terms of the content you won't be seeing) of choosing one format over the other has just gotten much closer to even, and that points towards a protracted struggle. Still, it could have been even worse for Blu-ray - it could have been Warner. Though there've been reports that Warner is also considering an offer to go HD-DVD exclusive, it looks like the most prominent of the format-neutral studios is staying that way, at least for now. Still, it's interesting to note that their "Total HD" dual-format disc is on hold indefinitely.

There were some positive indications for Blu-ray, 'tho; stand-alone player sales seem to be going their way recently, although HD-DVD still ahead year-to-date. In other developments, the fourth quarter will see lower-priced ($999) combo players from LG (their second, and this one actually supports HD-DVD interactive features), as well as from Samsung. And niche/global market format HD VMD plans to launch in October. Speaking of global markets, China has announced CH-DVD, its own local variant of HD-DVD.

As always, there is still some hardware news not related to NextGen DVD. TiVo owners got some good news recently; if the FCC listens to a proposal from the NCTA, a device that will enable TiVo (Series 3 & HD) and similar devices to support switched video. LCD prices may be lower than CRTs of the same size by this holiday season. And the fruits of the CableCARD mandate are beginning to show up - here's an example of the boxes that will soon be competing with cable company STBs.

That's all for this monthly recap. I hope to be back to a normal schedule next time. See you then!

18 Months and Counting: What's Changed?

Once again, the 17th has come and gone, and it's now less than 18 months until the current "hard" date (2/17/09) on which analog broadcasting is supposed to cease. This is the 17th of 35 planned monthly recaps of developments affecting the various players (laid out in my first few posts) in this story. Despite the name of this blog I do cover some stories (like the growth of HD) that are not directly transition-related (but strike me as being of interest to transition-watchers). Due to my upcoming trip, this will be a bit more focused than usual. That said, here's some of what happened (or was commented on) between 7/18 and 8/17. As usual, major news sources for this update include Multichannel News, Engadget HD, TV Week, TWICE and TVPredictions.com.

THE PUBLIC - Again, nothing new this time on the public's attitude towards the overall transition, but the argument goes on over who is responsible for educating them. At the recent CTAM (Cable & Telecommunications Association for Marketing) Summit in Washington, two prominent legislators (Representatives Rick Boucher and Greg Walden) urged cable to pick up the pace of its educational efforts.

GOVERNMENT - This section's big story this comes this time from the Senate Commerce Committee, which held a hearing on July 26th, entitled "Preparing Consumers for the Digital Television Transition". The archived webcast on the linked page doesn't seem to be working (for me, anyway), but there are links to a number of transcripts from some prime players, both from the governmental side (NTIA, FCC) and from public-interest groups (AARP, National Hispanic Media Coalition and The Leadership Conference of Civil Rights). From the advocates' comments, you can see that concern is high and rising regarding the level of current awareness among their various constituencies. And comments from Sen. Claire McCaskill included this:

Frankly, this scares me, politically..I mean, there is no anger that comes close to the anger of an American who can’t get television.

For more on the overall event, here's Dale Cripp's overview.

Plenty of other people expressed similar concerns. Andrew Schwartzman of the nonprofit Media Access Project was especially skeptical of the ability for the current planned efforts to reach the poor, elderly and non-English speakers. Using a term he also used back in April '06, FCC Commissioner Jonathan Adelstein warned again of a "tsunami" of consumer complaints at The Independent Show (a conference for small cable operators). Perhaps because of all of this, the FCC is now asking for comments on proposed remedies such as requirements for broadcasters (mandatory PSAs) and cable companies (bill inserts).

Speaking of requirements, there were developments regarding several mandates. The National Telecommunications and Information Administration(NTIA) recently awarded IBM the $120 million contract to administer the converter-box program designed to allow analog TVs to still receive over-the-air broadcasts after 2/17/09. They'll be responsible for areas such as consumer education, voucher distribution and retailer reimbursement. (The program itself has a budget of $990 million, with an additional $510 million available if needed.)

You might be forgiven for thinking the story regarding another mandate (the July 1st ban on integration of security features into cable STBs) is over, considering that the July 1st deadline has passed. Not the case, as the FCC is still giving waivers for financial-hardship reasons. I can't see that being the reason if Verizon succeeds in getting the two-year extension of the one-year waiver they've already been granted. Not all waivers are being granted. though. One denial that is being appealed concerns the request from The National Cable & Telecommications Association. If it's the blanket waiver for the whole membership (meaning the biggest names) that it seems to be from reading that article, I can't find the denial surprising - granting that particular waiver would make the mandate fairly meaningless, no? For those who are complying, here's a look at the box-CableCARD combos that are now being served.

Another government-related story is the upcoming auction of the 700Mz analog-TV spectrum auction. There are two main areas of contention at the moment. One is over the rules affecting auction winners. the interesting twist here is that the open-access wireless regulations favored by FCC Chairman Martin (a Bush appointee) are being opposed by Republican House members who consider the rules an abandonment of free-market principles. There is also contention over proposals to open up the so-called "white spaces" in the DTV spectrum band for unlicensed wireless uses, proposals supported by technology companies in the White Spaces Coalition (like Microsoft, Intel, Google and others), but opposed by broadcasters and consumer electronics manufacturers such as LG Electronics, Samsung, Hitachi and Panasonic.

Finally, the FCC checked an item off the transition to-do list by issuing final digital channel assignments.

BROADCASTING - One small retransmission story this time. In a bid to counter arguments that retransmission fees impose onerous costs on cable customers. local broadcasters submitted a study to the FCC showing those fees amounted to less than a dollar per customer per month. Another recently-quiet area is stirring this month is new local HD newscasts, which have recently recorded a milestone by passing the 50 mark nationwide (still a relative handful). No progress to report on national network news, but from personal observation I can report that the one network currently offering an HD nightly newscast (NBC) is finally starting to move non-studio shots beyond the White House lawn, with some Discovery-worthy footage shown in a recent story on territorial disputes in the Arctic.

Some new (or expanded) broadcast HD to report. The CW network will broadcast all their comedies and dramas in HD this coming season, with WWE SmackDown following in January, in contrast to CBS, which will stick with SD for its reality programming. Sports coverage is picking up; the Phoenix Suns will soon be the first NBA team to broadcast all their games in HD. And ABC has launched its on-line HD player (I tried it and it looked OK, but my connection never got up to the 2mb per second needed to light up the "HD" logo).

PROGRAM PROVIDERS - As I suspect will be the case for the foreseeable future, the biggest story in this section continues to be the struggle of various providers to expand capacity, both to compete with each other and to keep up with all the new HD channels being launched in the near future. Right now, the provider to catch is DirecTV, which will be starting its 100-HD-channel push by ramping up to 70 by the end of September (with an additional 30 coming by the end of the year). The situation was recently addressed in a panel discussion at the CTAM ( Cable & Telecommunications Association for Marketing) conference in Washington. Two videos and a recap are available here.

One provider with an immediate answer to DirecTV's announcements was Echostar/Dish Network's Charlie Ergen, who downplayed DirecTV's move, using a quality-over-quantity argument ("There's not 100 channels of HD that I would watch"). Only days later, he gave a little demonstration of what he does think is worth watching, by adding six new HD channels, including four Discovery Networks simulcasts (HD versions of Discovery Channel, Animal Planet, The Science Channel and TLC) that we all assumed would go up first on DirecTV. Nice!

There were also developments in various legal issues among the providers. Providers just love doing two things these days - claiming that their HD picture quality is the best, and suing anyone who says otherwise. While Time Warner and DirecTV are settling their differences, DirecTVs issues with Comcast are ongoing. Comcast recently won an injunction against two recent commercials, and the same judge rejected DirecTVs earlier motion for a similar injunction against Comcast.

There was also some action on the franchising front. In response to the recent trend toward fast-track franchising six organizations representing local and county authorities filed suit against the FCC, challenging the agency's right to tell them how long they can spend approving new video-service providers. Also, a Connecticut judge reversed a June decision by Connecticut regulators exempting AT&T's U-verse service from cable franchising rules.

In other provider news, Comcast added over 800,000 digital customers (added to a loss of 95,000 basic subscribers, this ups Comcast's digital-subscriber percentage significantly - a crucial factor in determining how fast they can proceed with analog reclamation). Dish has a new HD DVR.Verizon FiOS is rolling out an Interactive Media Guide,that combines sophisticated DVR functionality with PC integration and widgets. They now have over 500K subs, more of whom switched from satellite than from cable. Also getting more subs is U-Verse, now up to 51K subs, which doesn't sound like much, but is way better than the 13,000 they had three months ago. Cablevision has good news, too; their HD subs are up 78 percent year-over-year.And Time Warner President Jeff Bewkes wants providers to make DVRs unnecessary by putting everything on VOD.

Smaller providers you don't hear so much are part of the picture, too. They recently came together for a conference called The Independent Show to discuss their own strategies in managing the transition.

HD NETWORKS - Another month of little new-HD-channel news - presumably the calm before the storm. There will be a new HD movie channel early next year, an HD simulcast of the Hallmark Movie Channel. Turning to channels we aren't seeing, some might be surprised to see so little news in that area from the adult-entertainment business, given its pioneering role in establishing the home video medium. This Multichannel News article looks at some of the reasons why. In existing-channels news, MOJO will have three new series this October. Finally, another bit of video from the CTAM conference, as Dan Rather talks about working at HDNet, as well as making a few comments that received somewhat more exposure in the mainstream media.

MANUFACTURERS - As happened a couple of months ago, events taking place after the 17th threaten to overshadow those of the previous month. Up until Paramount/Dreamworks announced they would join the HD-DVD exclusives club, it often seemed that Universal was the Atlas holding the HD DVD world aloft, with its extensive list of releases playing a major role in keeping the number of releases for each format roughly equal (even closer than last time, in fact). That's probably why we started seeing indications that Universal might be coming under pressure (despite their denials.) to add Blu-ray support. To the mainstream consumer, lack of Universal product was (up to that point) the only price they would have to pay for picking Blu-ray. Those concerned about missing out on anime from Bandai or the 1000 indie films project that I mentioned last time are a much smaller group, so any Universal switch would have to be seen as more of a game-ender than a mere game-changer. With these new reinforcements, that's a lot less likely to happen in the near future.

However, the continuing problems for HD DVD extend beyond studio support. Target recently decided to start putting NextGen players in its stores - but only Blu-ray models. Like Blockbuster, this decision affects stores, not the website, and HD DVD discs (along with the Xbox 360 add-on drive) will remain in the stores. Also dropping HD DVD from stores is BJ's Wholesale Club. But now the question arises - when customers want to know why they can't get Shrek 3 in HD, will Target, Blockbuster and BJ's change their tune? I expect to see more fallout from this development in the next recap.

In hardware news not related to NextGen DVD, TiVo has introduced the sub-$300 "lite" version of the Series 3 that I said they were working on last time, and (getting back to the transition), Samsung will be selling a $75 Digital converter soon ($35 after using one of those $40 government coupons).

And that's all for this monthly recap. I am off to Japan on Wednesday, August 29, and expect to start work on the next recap on September 13. There'll be a lot of news, and it will likely be a bit later than normal if you're a new reader, I should explain that this one is several days earlier than normal). See you then!

19 Months and Counting: What's Changed?

Once again, the 17th has come and gone, and it's now less than 19 months until the current "hard" date (2/17/09) on which analog broadcasting is supposed to cease. This is the 16th of 35 planned monthly recaps of developments affecting the various players (laid out in my first few posts) in this story. Despite the name of this blog I do cover some stories (like the growth of HD) that are not directly transition-related (but strike me as being of interest to transition-watchers). Here's some of what happened (or was commented on) between 6/18 and 7/17. As usual, major news sources for this update include Multichannel News, Engadget HD, TV Week, TWICE and TVPredictions.com.

THE PUBLIC - Nothing new this time on the public's attitude towards the overall transition, but as usual we've got arguments over who is responsible for educating them. There are a couple of studies relating to the spread of HD. One from the Consumer Electronics Association finds HDTVs in 30 percent of U.S. households, with the percentage of HD owners getting HD service still under the 50% mark (at 44%). Remember, though, that that's 44% of a rapidly expanding number. According to this other study conducted by the Cable & Telecommunication Association, 70% of prospective HD owners know they have to get an HD programming package or antenna to get actual HD programming; putting the two figures together seems to suggest that a significant percentage of the holdouts are not so much unaware as simply uninterested.

GOVERNMENT - As mentioned above, there's an argument going on over responsibility for informing the citizenry of the mandated analog shut-off. FCC Chairman Kevin Martin recently responded to congressional criticism of the FCC's performance, in the process pointing out the the FCC has yet to receive the the $1.5 million it has asked for to help publicize the changes.

Meanwhile, there are other mandates, and one just went into effect. As of July 1st, the FCC has banned the deployment of cable set-top boxes with integrated security features. Security will now be provided by CableCards which can be plugged into either the cable company's leased equipment or third-party equipment owned by the consumer, a prospect that puts the CEA in a celebratory mood. But the FCC has given providers an out, one designed to speed the digital transition - if a provider has (or promises to have by 2/17/09) an all-digital network, they get a waiver. Over 120 companies have received them, including Verizon (thanks to a last-minute promise). The other telco service in the video market (AT&T's U-Verse) is maintaining that their IP technology is not covered by the ban (therefore, no need for a waiver). Meanwhile, the American Cable Association (a group representing small cable operators) is maintaining that the whole thing stinks.

We're now starting to see stories relating to one of the critical next steps in the transition, the government auction of the existing analog spectrum in the 700-Mz band, which is scheduled to begin no later than 01/28/08. Various groups have been promoting their ideas on how this auction should be managed. Public-interest groups would like to see cable companies and telcos kept out of the auction, in order to provide a boost to new players in the high-speed Internet access market. Then there's Frontline Wireless's plan to build a free nationwide first-responder network, if in return they can supplement the 10Mz they plan to win in the auction with 12Mz of the 24Mz mandated for public safety (only when there's no actual emergency going on, naturally). This plan would be implemented through proposed auction rules which would heavily favor Frontline in the bidding for that 10Mz (known as the E Block), rules that are somewhat controversial. Some of those rules (such as network neutrality) are also part of a proposal endorsed by FCC Chairman Kevin Martin, seemingly marking a change in the Chairman's thinking.

Finally, a note about a different digital transition than the one I've been covering - the FCC has upheld a plan to allow cellular carriers to turn off analog cellular service on 2/18/08 (a year before the same thing happens with TV).

BROADCASTING - Very little of note in this category this time. As an example, I have no retransmission stories at all. Also, no announcements of local news operations going HD (as I said before, I doubt this has stopped happening, but perhaps it's not considered as newsworthy as it once was). While we're waiting for more news in this area, here's a story of how local stations are using lighting to lessen the effect of HD on their on-air talent.

One sign of progress is when it's more noticeable that a program is not in HD then when it is - here's an article on how NBC and ESPN failed to deliver the goods in regards to this year's Wimbledon tournament. Contrast this with the treatment of the recent Live Earth concerts.

Something I learned this month - Americans don't have a monopoly on worries over their HD picture quality - Australians like to complain about that as well..

PROGRAM PROVIDERS - A lot more activity here, as you might have guessed. The long-promised launch of the DirecTV 10 satellite finally happened, clearing the way for DirecTV to start implementing their 100-HD-channels plan sometime in September (additional capacity will come on line sometime after DirecTV 11's scheduled December launch). So what are their competitors doing about this? Echostar's Dish Network (which will have their own new satellites going up next year) somehow found room to add 15 more channels in August and September (they're the second provider to announce carriage for those new channels from Discovery). Cablevision finally got around to adding those VOOM channels they own, and claim that their fiber-optic network will soon have 500 channel capacity (although they didn't say just how). More conservative in their ambitions is Cox, who are aiming for 50-channel capacity this year, and 100 by the end of 2009. Perhaps this conservativism has something to do with their determination to put picture quality first.

Switched Digital Video is one of the most highly-touted bandwidth-extending technologies, and Time Warner recently shared their experiences (they've been rolling the technology out in the Austin area, and hope to have it in at least half their markets this year) at this year's Cable Tec Expo. Meanwhile, Comcast used a bit of the bandwidth it gained with its recently-completed Chicago analog reclamation project to play catch up by adding four HD channels (A&E, Food, HGTV and National Geographic) already seen in some of their other regions. So what will they do with all that other space? Put another way, how many other areas have to go through a similar reclamation before it will be worth their while to sign up some of those new channels that will soon start dropping from the heavens?

Whatever it is other providers choose to do, they have to do something, as those unable to make the necessary investments may well get swallowed up by those who can.

No updates on this time on the various legal matters I've been following (Time Warner's suit over DirecTVs claims of superior picture quality and channel capacity, DirecTV's suit against Comcast over consumer preferences and Cablevision's defense against charges of copyright violations regarding their "network DVR"). The statewide-franchising front was fairly quiet as well, with Illinois' bill being signed into law, but also with increasing resistance from localities in various states (one argument being that a lack of build-out mandates will allow providers to cherry-pick communities and leave poorer ones out in the cold).

In news specific to individual providers, DirecTV offered a sneak peak of MHD (including the six-hour Concert For Diana), which will be added to its lineup in September. Comcast signed off on the software for its planned August rollout of TiVo service in parts of New England. AT&T is adding HD to its Homezone service. The most news comes from Verizon, which is nearing the half-million mark in FiOS TV subs, adding Rhode Island to its list of states and will be launching HD VOD in the future (they don't have it already?), as Cox has just done.

HD NETWORKS - Like last time, I'm not seeing nearly as much new-channel news as I would have expected, given how many channels are expected to debut in the next few months. TBS did set a firm date (September 1st) for the TBS HD launch. There are a couple of other networks that hope to be seen by many of you soon. The yet-to-launch Big Ten network (which will have an HD component from the start) is struggling for carriage on Comcast, and newcomer MavTV (a "male-oriented" network) is preparing an HD launch for early 2008, (where it will presumably vie with MOJO for that demographic). Nine new channels not as likely to be seen by a broad audience were launched by Houston-area provider Optical Entertainment Network. All feature "relaxing" images and ambient music (and you thought VOOM was narrowly-targeted). And one of the first actual HD programs to appear on CNN HD will be the documentary Planet In Peril, which will air in October.

Not new networks, but here's a couple of tantalizing hints of possible HD entrants in the future. AMC's new series Mad Men was filmed in HD and is now available on Comcast HD VOD, while Sundance Channel (near the top of my HD wishlist) is presenting a weekly programming block on Universal HD.

Among existing channels, HDNet continues to get coverage, this time by topping what's described as "the first high-definition TV ratings" (gathered by TNS Media Research). HDNet's Mark Cuban also has more thoughts on HD, this time focusing on whether there is programming that is good only in HD. There was also some news related to National Geographic HD - they are being added by Cox and recently announced a bunch of new specials.

MANUFACTURERS - As usual, we'll begin this section with a look at the state of the NextGen format wars, and this time we begin right where we left off last time, with Blockbuster's big decision to focus solely on Blu-ray as it expands its pilot NextGen operation from 250 stores to 1,700, meaning that the additional 1,450 stores will be Blu-ray only. How big a deal is this, really? Will the message this gives to millions of consumers (the ones that still like to browse their rental DVD choices in stores, anyway) just checking out these formats (mainly that they'd better get on the winning team) help bring the war to an early end? No surprise that Blu-ray backer Panasonic thinks it's over. Maybe, but not everyone is ready to throw in the towel just yet.

Most vocal among that group of HD DVD believers is, as you might expect, the HD DVD Promotional Group , which recently claimed to have an overwhelming European lead in players sold. However, that lead disappears once you add in PS3s and PC Drives. The HD DVD folks counter with the argument that console sales mean little since a smaller percentage of them are used for games, but if you look at the huge edge Blu-ray has in disc sales, I'd have to guess that PS3 owners account for a fair share of that. Lack of PS3 figures may also affect their other claim, that Blu-ray sales are down in Q2 (as compared to healthy growth for HD DVD). However, the PS3 factor can't explain away the claimed 5% decline in Blu-ray disc sales, so that's interesting.

Plenty of others are still on board as well. Microsoft (who already have a HD DVD add-on drive for the XboX 360) most certainly is, so much so that they claim that their HDi interactive technology will be a difference maker in the struggle. They are also helping on the content side, partnering with Amazon and CustomFlix to get up to 1000 indie films on HD DVD. Warners is also a valuable team member, treating the formats equally with planned "best of" box sets for each, then going a bit beyond that by providing expanded extras on the HD DVD of 300 (for $5 more than the Blu-ray version). Warners would be even more valuable if their "Total HD" double-format disc (which could tempt consumers to jump in, knowing that if they back the wrong horse they'll just have to replace the player, not their library as well) wasn't delayed until 2008. Another way to future-proof yourself is to invest in a dual-format player, and the one coming from Samsung in the late fall will (unlike LG's player) support all the features of both formats (UPDATE: the first version of this post mentioned a much lower projected price - less than $600 - as reported in the linked article. This appears not to be the case, as the price announced on 7/25 is actually $1049) . And we can't forget Universal - the only major studio backing HD DVD exclusively has done a heroic job cranking out the back catalog and thus keeping the number of titles available in each format roughly even.

We should also point out that Blockbuster's experience is not universal. Netflix is seeing more balanced demand (scroll down to the end of this TVWeek article, and according to this Video Business piece (thanks to Engadget HD for bringing this to our attention) retailers are still planning to stock both (although Hastings Entertainment is thinking of going Blu-ray exclusive, and the Virgin store in Times Square devotes twice as much space to Blu-ray as HD DVD). It also is looking as though the giant audio/video club Columbia House will support both formats come the fall.

Still, HD DVD has a pretty high mountain to climb, and it's getting higher. When you add stand-alone players to things like game consoles and attachment drives, you get a 5 to 1 edge in Blu-ray's favor as far as installed base goes. And you can add one new content source (GalleryPlayer) to the ranks of Blu-ray exclusives. There's sure to be plenty of new developments next time!

Moving on to retail, the continuing ripples of last year's holiday-season blowouts have pushed Tweeter into Chapter 11, and now their stock has been de-listed. They have, however, gotten a "going concern" offer for almost all of their assets, indicating that the brand is likely to live on under new ownership. Circuit City is also making changes by de-emphasizing TV.

There's just a few other pieces of hardware news that caught my eye this time. ATSC (the Advanced Television Systems Committee, whose initials are usually seen in connection with digital tuners) is evaluating proposals for a mobile/handheld ATSC standard (to be called ATSC-M/H). If you're interested in Mitsubishi's new laser TV display technology, the company will be showing it off at January's CES. Finally, TiVo is working on a 'lite" version of the Series 3 for $299 (UPDATE: They're already taking orders).

And that's all I have at this moment. I slipped back a couple of days on the schedule due to an upcoming event, which will also affect the next monthly recap, and even the one after that (though not as much). Look for a post with more details on this in the next few days.

20 Months And Counting: What's Changed?

Once again, the 17th has come and gone, and it's now less than 20 months until the current "hard" date (2/17/09) on which analog broadcasting is supposed to cease. This is the 15th of 35 planned monthly recaps of developments affecting the various players (laid out in my first few posts) in this story. Despite the name of this blog I do cover some stories (like the growth of HD) that are not directly transition-related (but strike me as being of interest to transition-watchers). Here's some of what happened (or was commented on) between 5/18 and 6/17 (with one exception). As usual, major news sources for this update include Multichannel News, Engadget HD, TV Week, TWICE and TVPredictions.com.

THE PUBLIC - Another slow month here. Part of the process of educating the public about the transition comes from the media (including print) that they consume, so it's nice to see a fairly-thorough overview from the enormously influential and widely read Consumer Reports (thanks to Engadget HD for pointing me towards this).

GOVERNMENT - A number of government mandates figured in the news this last month. Influential House Democrats urged the FCC to mandate faster action on the transition-related educational campaigns currently scheduled to start next year, while the FCC itself is allowing some stations to go slow on converting their facilities to digital (I honestly had no idea that there were over 100 stations still lacking a digital signal). Something else that surprised me recently was the number of analog TVs still available from retailers, three months after the FCC banned their import and distribution. Perhaps retailers simply stocked up in bulk, but perhaps some manufacturers aren't playing by the new rules and will end up on the business end of an FCC fine of the sort that Maxent and Olevia now face. Perhaps Uniden will get some scrutiny as well, since they have announced that some of their new 1080p LCDS will have analog tuners only. (Perhaps the fact that they're a foreign company selling direct to the customer on their website leads them to believe that they're exempt from the "import" part of the ban?) Another, more recent FCC mandate involves the clear labeling of any remaining analog sets on the shelves (real or virtual), as they recently reminded retailers, but go back a few sentences and click on the link relating to remaining analogs to see that here too compliance has not been perfect.

Moving on to mandates yet to come, Comcast revealed that all subscribers (including analog subscribers who won't see any benefit) will share the pain of the costs to implement the July 1st ban on set-top boxes with integrated security (in effect making CableCARD mandatory). If you're as behind the curve in CableCARD knowledge as I am, you'll appreciate this Engadget HD piece, which passes on a lot of useful info gleaned from conversation with Motorola's Mark DiPietro. A critical upcoming event in the transition will be the auction that will determine the new owners of all that analog broadcast spectrum, and the NCTA (National Cable & Telecommunications Association) wants cable operators included, a stance which is winning support from a number of Senate Republicans.

These last few items aren't transition-related at all, but I'm guessing that a lot of you have at least some interest in other aspects of the government's involvement with your TV, and might like to know the opinions of Congresspeople on the a la carte issue (both pro and con). Definitely on the pro side is FCC Chairman Kevin Martin - after all, now that the federal appeals court has thrown a wrench in the FCC's campaign against fleeting expletives, what other tool will he have in his never-ending struggle to clean up TV?

BROADCASTING - The retransmission front was fairly quiet again this time, with a Cox-Sinclair deal being the only thing I came across. It seems Sinclair has now come to terms with all the major operators in their markets. Another fairly quiet front was local HD news. Although I'm sure there were at least a couple of new ones out there, they didn't seem to be making much noise. So I guess we've got room for a few pieces dealing with the experiences of existing operations, like this one concerning challenges involved with bringing HD out to the field, or this one on the importance of sets and lighting, or this one about a station in Seattle that got its feet wet in HD with an evening magazine show (similar to Boston's own WCVB and Chronicle).

Nothing new to report in other broadcast HD, either, in fact there have been a couple of backward steps. Last month's report of abc.com's plan to stream HD on their website needs to be qualified with a reference to the very low bitrate they'll be using. And this one is temporary, but for the summer both NBC and Fox will be delivering less prime-time HD. Something else that can negatively impact HD is multicasting - for those who are interested, here's a little something on how it works. Finally, you've probably heard about declining broadcast ratings - turns out that the Nielsen people have finally figured out that more and more people are simply shifting their viewing to DVRs.

PROGRAM PROVIDERS - The most compelling story in this section continues to be (and probably will continue to be for some time) the struggle to increase capacity to keep up with the floodtide of new HD channels being announced. DirecTV started this all off with their "100 channels" announcement a few months back, but while it looks like there's a delay in the launch of the first new DirecTV satellite, I'm not sure yet whether that will push back the September arrival of new channels. That's not stopping everyone else from trying to catch up, of course. Two months ago in this space I mentioned Comcast's Chicago experiment designed to radically chop away at the analog tier. Predictably, they've been getting complaints from analog customers, but to get the 228 megahertz this project will give them (enough to match DirecTV's capacity if they didn't want to share it with VOD or Internet), they seem willing to take the hit. Of course, a cheaper way to enhance public perception of your capacity is to play with words and numbers, which is what Comcast seems to be doing when it talks about having 400 HD choices this year, and 800 by the end of 2008. Sounds very impressive, but what you need to know here is that they are counting every single HD VOD selection as a "choice". It does, however, make a point - HD VOD capacity really is a part of overall HD capacity, which means that RGB Networks, who claim that their new video-processing box can allow for 50 % more VOD streams in the same spectrum should not lack for customers if these claims prove true.

Putting this and the Chicago experiment aside for a moment, we can see some more modest attempts by Comcast to clear bandwidth, as systems in Colorado and Mobile, Alabama make a few channels digital-only, possibly to help along the national rollout of A&E, HGTV and Food Network HD (the latter two having appeared in Boston first). While we don't yet how long it will take Comcast to apply its more-ambitious strategies outside the Chicago area, Time Warner is more forthcoming, having made it known that they intend to deploy switched video in 50% of their markets this year. By sending only the channels actually being watched instead of trying to force every channel down the same pipe at once, switched video's backers claim "virtually unlimited" HD capacity. But while we're waiting to see which plans come to fruition, here 's a little summary the current reality.

Legal matters continued to attract attention. On the heels of recent lawsuits involving Time warner and DirecTV comes this new one filed by DirecTV against Comcast challenging claims (based on a Magid Associates survey) that satellite customers prefer Comcast's picture. And Cablevision has filed an appeal of the decision that ruled against its plans for a network DVR (you remember, the decision that said it's OK for customers to store programs on their home DVRs, but if the same programs are stored for the same customers on the network it suddenly becomes theft), and has gained the support of 11 industry and public-interest groups.

Statewide franchising moved forward as well, with bills in signed into law by Gov. Crist of Florida and Gov. Culver of Iowa. Meanwhile, Nevada's bill headed to the governor's desk. Not all franchise-reform legislation is cut from the same cloth, as it appears that Connecticut's recently-passed law actually subjects AT&T's U-verse service to regulations they've avoided so far. Not all franchise-reform legislation passes, either - Tennessee's bill has been withdrawn after opposition by local officials and cable companies.

Moving on to news specific to individual providers, DirecTV continues to fill in the blanks of their 100-channel future lineup, confirming carriage for those new channels from Discovery and Starz that I mentioned last time, as well as announcing their intent to carry 11 of the 26 HD feeds HBO/Cinemax will be launching by the second quarter of 2008 (see HD NETWORKS below). Here's a list of what had been firmed up before the HBO announcement. Others adding or moving channels include Cablevision (adding Versus/Golf HD) and Time Warner (shrinking their HD tier by moving ESPN's HD channels to un-tiered digital cable). Comcast will be launching TiVo service in Boston this August (so hopefully I'll be able to report on it not too long thereafter). Dish is rolling out a new HD receiver, while Verizon FiOS will be rolling out a slick new program guide. In contrast, a number of key enhancements to U-verse could be delayed up to a year.

HD NETWORKS - While last month (4/18-5/17) was the month the floodgates finally opened in terms of new HD channel announcements, this month was actually fairly quiet until June 12th. Until then, the only thing I'd found was an announcement for an HD version of Si TV, an English-language network geared to the Latino audience. Then came June 12th, and the announcement of 26 HBO HD feeds, up from the current four (East/West versions of the main HBO and Cinemax channels). This change means that every channel in the HBO/Cinemax family (both East and West feeds) gets its own HD counterpart. How long it will take them to acquire as much "True HD" content as the main channels remains to be seen. One question; if DirecTV (the provider with the most bandwidth in the short run) is only going to carry 11 of these, who will carry the rest?

Things were even quieter regarding existing HD networks, but I do have an item concerning HDNet (which is receiving some broadcast exposure by selling the first season of its comedy improv series Sports Action Team to 10 NBC-owned stations). I also have something regarding Discovery HD Theatre - thanks to Engadget HD for pointing me to this 1080eyes blog entry by guest blogger Clint Stinchcomb of DHT, wherein he assures us that it will continue to be their HD crown jewel, no matter how many other Discovery-affiliated channels go HD. And both HDNet and DHT factor into this Cableworld report on news and documentary production.

MANUFACTURERS - When I finished my link-collecting and turned in on the night of June 17th, I was pretty sure how the NextGen DVD story for this recap was going to read. It was going to focus on renewed competitiveness between the formats, with recent Toshiba rebate promotions helping push HD DVD ahead of Blu-ray in terms of dedicated players sold (of course, this still doesn't factor in all those PS3s). I was also going to point out that the gap in number of available titles was fairly stable (surprising, given Blu-ray's advantage in studio support), and that Universal (the only HD-DVD exclusive studio) was sticking to its guns. Not to mention that all was not perfect in Blu-rayville, with Sony being sued for Blu-ray-related patent infringement. That doesn't mean I was going to ignore the other side of the equation, of course. I certainly would not have forgotten to mention that in the midst of its success Toshiba was still cutting future sales projections by 44 percent, or that Sony had considerably narrowed the price gap with its $499 BDP-S300 model. I'd also planned to mention that Onkyo was reconsidering plans to bring out its own HD DVD player, and that Disney was also sticking to its guns and maintaining its Blu-ray-only commitment. Overall though, it still seemed like a horserace at that point.

Then came the morning of June 18th, with my Boston Globe informing me of Blockbuster's big decision to focus solely on Blu-ray as it expands its pilot NextGen operation from 250 stores to 1,700, meaning that the additional 1,450 stores will be Blu-ray only. Which makes just about everything else in the prior month jseem ust a bit insignificant. They are basing their decision on what consumers are choosing (Blu-ray more than 70 percent of the time), and even though they are leaving the door open a bit by keeping both formats online and at the original 250 stores (presumably so they can tell if there's a shift in the winds), this is big, bad news for HD DVD. There's also an excellent chance this could become a self-fulfilling prophecy once word gets out to consumers. The next few weeks will certainly have some follow-on developments (I'm seeing signs of that already), so be sure to check back next time.

In the retail sector, the ripples from last year's holiday season price-slashing just keep expanding and expanding. CompUSA is exiting the mass consumer market to focus on business as well as "technology enthusiasts" and "educated professionals" (i.e. people who don't worry as much about what things cost), while Tweeter has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, and could be sold soon. None of which is going to stop manufacturers like Phillps from making plans for Black Friday 2007 (although they do seem to want to go a bit lighter on the slashing this time).

In other hardware news, you might have noticed last time that when mentioning a piece of good news for the SED TV display technology I said that events after 5/17 had made that victory fairly meaningless. What I was referring to was the decision by SED's backers to delay it again, and just as importantly there are serious doubts as to whether costs can be brought down to a competitive level. Doesn't look good! Another promising technology (from Samsung) combines LCD screens with LED backlighting, with promises of greatly improved contrast ratio. Looking further (much further) down the road, HD's would-be eventual replacement (now known as Super Hi-Vision) continues to advance with a new image sensor that can record an entire 7,680 x 4,320 frame. A classic theme of innovation is miniaturization, on display this month in a teeny-weeny ATSC tuner. And TiVo is finally making a profit.

And that's all I have at this moment. As promised, I managed to get this in earlier than last time, and given the amount of material in these recaps, 11 days after the 17th is about as timely as this particular spare-time activity is likely to get. See you next time!

Switchover One-Year Recap: Manufacturers

When I started this blog, I opened with a series of posts called "The Players", where I identified what I considered to be the main actors in the unfolding drama of the DTV transition. Since then, I've done twelve monthly recaps (since I'm counting down to 2/17/09, my "month" runs from the 18th to the following 17th) tracking the changes involving each group (The Public, Government, Broadcasting, Program Providers, HD Networks, and Manufacturers - retail being thrown in with Manufacturers). This series will look at what's happened over the course of those twelve months, and ask a longer-term version of the question I ask in every monthly recap - what's changed? (NOTE: This series does not replace my next monthly recap, though it has already made it much later than it usually is.)

It's interesting to note that when I wrote my first hardware-related post, the looming war between NextGen DVD formats wasn't even mentioned, considering how they've come to dominate hardware news. Here's how things looked on 4/4/06:

Let me say right up front that this will not be a hardware-centric blog. You can get tons of detailed tech specs, etc. from many other sources, such as HDTV Magazine (they publish an extremely extensive annual review by Rodolfo La Maestra). But the hardware that is made (and sold) will clearly affect the programming that is produced and distributed, and the channels that are launched and carried. That makes hardware developments that illustrate some aspect of the bigger picture fair game.

Here's an example. Recently a federal mandate went into affect that says that all TVs 25" and over must include a digital tuner, unless they're simply a monitor with no tuner at all. Note that this applies to manufacture, not sale, and does not cover existing stocks. However, it didn't take long for the "big box" ads to list every analog set (in that size range) in their circulars as a closeout. More importantly, we're starting to see ads for their replacements, the "digital SDTV".

And the digital SDTV worries me. I first heard about it last summer, and wasn't sure it had any future. But the more I think about it, the more I see the potential for it to become a big hit. The combination of a near-analog price and familar 4:3 aspect ratio could be just the thing for that segment of the public (which I'm guessing is pretty large) that would really rather have the TV experience they grew up with, or as close to that as can be had in the post-analog age. This effect will only increase next year when the mandate applies to even the smallest sets.

If these sets do become the replacement set of choice for all those analog sets out there, what does that do to plans for HD programming and new channels? How much of existing and planned investment was based on the idea that everyone would be watching HD in the not-too-distant future? Will those investments still be worth it if most people are watching a letterboxed (or cropped) image in 480i?

So what's happened in the year since? The story that's most directly related to transition is, of course, the FCC mandates that drove analog TVs out of the market. Soon after digital tuners became mandatory for 25"-and-above sets, digital took the lead in sales for the first time, a lead it has never relinquished. Now analog is truly on its last legs, as existing retailer stocks slowly run out. Early on, (as my initial post shows) I was highly concerned that the real beneficiary of these mandates would be the digital 4:3 SDTV, and early indications seemed to bear this out. However, it's pretty clear that my concerns were overblown, largely because HD prices have come down so dramatically in the last year. However, I suspect that the digital SDTV will do much better in the smaller sizes that have just recently been introduced. Speaking of the smaller sizes, how are the cheapest portables (a market segment where the additional cost could be much more noticeable) going to cope with the need to incorporate a digital tuner? This Engadget HD piece from December gives one answer.

Not just TVs are affected by the new mandates - every device with an analog tuner must now have a digital one as well. This TWICE article from January explores the ramifications for the recorder market.

Those HD price declines I mentioned above were thrown into high relief with the 2006 holiday shopping season, in which HDTV really seemed to emerge as a mainstream product, spurred on by huge Black Friday discounts But what was great for the consumer, has proven not as good as you'd think for the retailer, with discounts getting so large that they actually hurt retailers' bottom lines, with Circuit City being especially hard hit, causing much industry consternation. All this recent buying highlights a change in the overall TV marketplace, as flat panels now represent the majority of sets sold.

Looking ahead, a number of technologies have been struggling to emerge. One that's been having a hard time of it is the highly-touted SED (surface-conduction electron-emitter display). In August, TV Week speculated that market pressures could make it impossible to even launch it at competitive prices. Things were looking more hopeful with October announcements from Canon and Toshiba, but a patent lawsuit from one of Canon's other partners has raised some doubts about that. A brand new, coming-in-a-year, would-be plasma-killer technology called Laser TV was announced in October. And the ultra-high-res technologies that will eventually replace HDTV have begun to make their way out of the laboratories, so the fortunate among us will get to live this whole story out again sometime in the future (if we have any money left, that is). And while 1080P broadcasting may be a ways off, manufactures are beginning to show the equipment. On the other end of the spectrum, Texas Instruments is demoing 720P on mobile phones. (how could you tell the difference at that size)? But it may be "lights out" soon for our old friend the CRT tube).

But as I mentioned above, the dominant hardware story over the last year has been the NextGen DVD war. I first wrote about it on April 20th of last year, stressing the potential for causing even more public confusion about HD. While people might be a bit less confused a year later, I still think this is going to be a niche product for a long time. While VCRs thrived in the middle of a long-running format war, you have to remember that those machines were delivering completely new capabilities (time-shifting and watching of pre-recorded material) to customers' television experience. For all but hardcore videophiles NextGen DVD represents an incremental improvement, not worth all that much money, but more importantly not worth the risk of picking the wrong format and having all that money go to waste in the end. So far, reports of consumer reaction seem to be bearing that out.

Despite early attempts to come up with a unified format, none of these considerations were enough to prevent the two incompatible formats from going ahead. At first, it didn't look too good for Blu-ray, with early reports of problems with quality of pressings and a shortage of titles doing little to justify the notion of paying twice as much as you would for HD-DVD. Retailers weren't impressed,, either. As late as September, a prominent backer was declaring victory for HD-DVD, and as late as December a market survey reported heavy negativity towards Blu-ray.

But slowly, things began to swing in Blu-ray's favor. The incorporation of a Blu-ray player into PlayStation 3 was critical (Microsoft had an HD-DVD add-on to its Xbox 360, but has no plans to incorporate it), and even its limited holiday-season American allotment of 400,000 units made it the top NextGen player to that time. There was a lot of skepticism about how much gamers would use this capability, but early figures point to heavy usage. Then in February the numerical superiority of studios supporting Blu-ray finally began to be reflected in the number of titles available. As far as sales go, an NDP Group study revealed that if you combined stand-alone sales (from April to December) of the two formats with PS3s and HD-DVD add-on drives, Blu-ray was the definite sales leader. That also began to be reflected in disc sales, where Blu-ray discs outsold HD-DVDs by 2:1 in the first week of January, and nearly 3:1 in the second week. And later this year at least one hardware maker will be putting downward pressure on Blu-ray prices, eroding one of the few HD-DVD advantages. But it's still very early in this game, and as Ben Drawbaugh of Engadget HD points out, too early to leap to definite conclusions.

(NOTE: Due to time and space constraints, I am just scratching the surface of my NextGen coverage. For much more detail of how this story played out over the year, please check out my monthly recaps in the "Archives" links.)

As dominant as these stories were, it's important to remember that there were other kinds of hardware stories during the year. The most directly transition-related is the digital-to-analog converter box that so many analog owners will be needing. So far, RCA, Samsung and LG have gotten into the game.

TiVo caught up with HD with the Series 3, but at $800 many are wondering if this is going to entice enough people away from their cableco DVRs. (In addition, Diego's MOXI box will be taking on Series 3 on the retail front.) In September, TiVo's Jim Denney made their case in this TV Week interview. By March, TiVo was promising cheaper HD recorders, but will they still work if your provider moves to Switched Video to get around bandwidth limitations? And here's something that will increase consumer familiarity with HD video - next year, new imaging chips will enable even entry-level digital cameras (that's camera, not camcorder) to record it.

Lastly, things weren't looking too good for CableCard. But with cablecos under an FCC order to begin supplying Cablecard-compatible set top boxes soon, things will probably be looking up.